Kline Expects Presidential Campaign to Be Tough
Marketing communications expert Miro Kline expects the campaign ahead of the autumn presidential election to be tough because the result of the vote will affect the outcome of the general election next year. Kline, a professor at the Ljubljana Faculty of Social Sciences, has also told STA that the run-off, which public opinion polls indicate will be fought between Lojze Peterle and Danilo Tuerk, will be very close.
Why do you think the presidential race started this early?
Today we talk of the permanent campaign in politics. This means that an election already gives way to a campaign for the next election. Peterle launched his campaign as early as last year, but was probably thinking about the office even as he decided to stand for a seat in the European Parliament. Having entered the race that early, his chances of being elected have increased.
On the one hand, this is long-term career planning, while on the other it is a matter of managing impressions on potential voters. This doesn't surprise me in the least. What it does is that some of the parties, or most of them, did not do a thing, while now, in the past month, they took up an intense, almost panic search for the right candidate.
Is it possible to talk of independent candidates when they enjoy the backing of certain parties, moral as well as financial?
It is obvious that candidates cannot be non-partisan. If they are party members and suspend membership upon election, their value systems remain the same. They will still think and work in accordance with the same values. The situation is somewhat different when a party picks someone outside of its ranks. All the same, it still believes, quietly at least, that the candidate follows a value system similar to the one the party advocates itself. Formally, such a candidate is non-partisan, but not also informally.
Will the candidates try to emphasise political values in relation to the bloc they lean to?
The idea of a campaign is that it does not pay to work too much on those who are persuaded, so everyone focuses on those 20%, 25% undecided voters. These are the ones who do not hold specific views about what the candidate should be like. Such voters do not have clear political preferences, but look for less important, marginal, human impulses. This often leads to the focus being shifted to personal traits, the way in which the candidate communicates or what he or she wears.
How civilised do you think the election campaign will be?
I definitely expect the race to be tough, given the stakes. The thing is that the presidential poll will powerfully affect the result of the parliamentary election next year. The bloc or the representatives of the winning candidate will improve the probability of winning the parliamentary vote by possibly 30-40%. I think we are witnessing a lull before the storm.
Which themes will be at the foreground of the campaign?
As a rule, one of the topics will be the developments during and after World War II. If any of the candidates is ready to overcome divisions from that time, this will be a winning idea. There's also the issue of Slovenia's role in the EU and its aspiration to make it among the most advanced member states, as well as security worldwide and in particular at home. This entails the question how well the citizens of Slovenia really live and whether we feel safe enough at home now that we have joined NATO.
Would you say the candidates have been avoiding the topic of recent history because they fear this may undermine the support they enjoy with the voters?
The issue is more complex. It is not the candidates who do the tough work or make big provocations, but the opinion makers of a certain bloc. Some provoke a stir just to see the reaction and then act in a conciliatory manner. With candidates one should watch out for who responds with frustration when challenged. That is to say to lose their temper and to say what they really think. This is called impression management; they are trying to create the impression that they are calm and highlight values becoming the office. They must sell this picture.
Do you think any of the candidates could win in the first round?
Although some of them say they will, this is absolutely impossible, except for a miracle. Opinion polls show a candidate could get up to 35-40%, which means it is absolutely impossible for anyone to garner more than 50% in the first round. I believe Peterle has secured his position in the run-off. This is a game of one against two, so that he is bound to be in the second round. If the left bloc had not had two candidates in the race, the race could well be over after the first round.
Has SocDem leader Borut Pahor made a favour to the right-leaning bloc by delaying the decision over his standing, or has the uncertainty created a new impetus for the left-leaning bloc?
The left-leaning bloc will definitely get mobilised more because they will have to do much in a very short time. This means they will invest many human and financial resources to come out of the battle with a positive result. Pressed for time, they are bound to make mistakes, while the question is whether any of these will be fatal. Nonetheless, they have a chance to win. They will transfer the capital raised by Pahor to the other candidate and in this way try to win. The run-off will be close for sure.
How would you assess the performance of the first two presidents of independent Slovenia?
It is clear they are two types of leaders. As president Milan Kucan could be described as a transaction leader. He had earned all his power and reputation in some other system, which he transposed to a new, different environment, and the people trusted him well enough. His role mirrored the attitude from the past period.
Janez Drnovsek emerged in a different role, with a different style, which is closer to a transformation leader. He stopped half-way into his term, when he probably experienced that the manner and mechanisms in which he functioned as the prime minister no longer worked they way they did before. He eventually tried with a spiritual transformation, which turned out to be inefficient in the long-run simply because this is not the Drnovsek Slovenian citizens are used to. People still perceive him as a banker, pragmatist and a politician. I dear say he cannot wait for his term to end.
How important will the support of the former and incumbent president for any of the candidates be?
In marketing this is called an attempt to transfer images between politicians. Their positive as well as negative image in the eyes of voters is transferred to the candidate they support. The question is how such support is interpreted by the voters of each party; and in particular what it means for the group of undecided voters. I believe they both enjoy much popularity. I think they are supported by more than 50% of centre-ground voters.
How would you comment on Kucan's statement that he would back the candidate who proves to be the most critical of the incumbent government?
This was quite wise statement. It is a test of how firm the views of individual candidates are and their position on the relation between the president and prime minister. By making the statement, Kucan challenged the candidates to show what their relation to the government will be. That means that the president is not only in symbiosis with the government, but that his or her role is oriented towards correcting the government at the symbolic, value and moral levels. This can be a good corrective factor, which every president must set, for some healthy competition between the two roles is always useful. This will show whether they are the right candidates for the head of state or not.
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