The Ljubljana-based International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) does not think the outcome of Sunday's general election augurs well for Serbia's future because it retains the status quo, which means a slow down in the country's progress towards the EU.
The head of the institute, Zijad Becirovic, said in his statement for STA on Monday that he believed the government under the leadership of incumbent Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica would continue to interfere in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Becirovic expects Serbia's new government will be formed by the Democratic Party (DS), the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and G-17 Plus, with the support of the parties representing minorities, while he also believes Kostunica will continue to serve as prime minister.
The analyst does not think Kostunica will accept the offer by the DS leader, Serbian President Boris Tadic, for the new prime minister to become DS candidate Bozidar Djelic, while Tadic will not be able to form a coalition without Kostunica.
"This puts Tadic in an awkward situation in which he will have to endorse Kostunica as the new prime minister," Becirovic commented on the Serbian election.
"Serbia's progress towards the EU and NATO will slow down because, if he [Kostunica] heads the government, general Ratko Mladic will definitely not be handed over" to the Hague tribunal.
Becirovic moreover wonders about the direction Serbia will take given that the Radicals, who are strongly against EU and NATO membership, won a convincing victory for a second time in a row with 27.06% of the vote.
He also believes Serbia will "interfere in the internal affairs of Bosnia-Herzegovina because Serbia wants the Republic of Srpska as a substitute for the loss of Kosovo, as some kind of cure for its political frustration".
Becirovic pointed to Belgrade's recent acquisition of the telco of the Serb entity in Bosnia as evidence testifying to his claim.
The official believes the biggest winner of Sunday's vote is the former President Slobodan Milosevic's Socialist Party (SPS) for managing to survive politically in the face of developments following Milosevic's arrest.
Such a survival is not simple on the motley political scene in Serbia, Becirovic told STA, adding that the Socialists had contributed to Kostunica's heading the government for the past three years. The Socialists garnered 5.9% of the vote, according to unofficial results.
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