No influx of Slovene Workers to the EU Expected

February, 2001

The free movement of workers, which means that a EU citizen can be employed anywhere in the EU, is guaranteed by the EU contract banning any discrimination against ethnic affiliation of workers. The opening of the labour market for future members of the EU is, however, a cause of concern. The EU members that are situated closer to the candidate countries fear that cheaper workers from poorer countries might overflow their labour market. It is expected that the present EU members will try to protect themselves from cheaper manpower from Central Europe. They are likely to insist on transition periods whose length would depend on the GDP of the future new members. The EU is expected to treat the candidate countries individually and might even opt for different treatments for individual cases in a candidate country.

What are Slovenia's arguments?

There are no cogent reasons for concern in regard to Slovenia. Slovenia is a small country with a population of two million, which makes it a small potential for migrations. It is relatively well developed, its unemployment rate is below the European average. In addition there are no big differences in the level of development of its regions. Furthermore, the internal and external migratory mobility of its population tends to be very small. With these arguments Slovenia would like to convince its future partners in the EU that they need not be afraid. Slovenia also insists that the free movement of workers be implemented from the very beginning of its membership in the EU.

Slovenia's GDP is about 70 percent of the EU average, which is the level of the present least developed members. The situation is similar in regard to wages. According to some surveys made in the end of 1990s, Slovenia's GDP per capita is 34th in the world. Furthermore, Slovenia ranks 28th in the world with regard to the human resources development index and 20th for the education index. Slovenia is thus in the group of countries with the most developed human factor and is in front of other candidate countries.

The unemployment rate, measured by the ILO standards, ranged between 7.3 percent and 7.9 percent in the last five years, which is below the EU average of 9.2 percent in 1999. The differences in regional development have never been big, so no major migratory pressures are expected, in particular concerning daily migrations. In 1996 the GDP ratio between the most and the least developed region in Slovenia was 1:1.7 - in the Czech Republic it was 1:2.4, in Hungary 1:3.3, in Poland 1:2.8 and in Estonia 1:2.3.

The internal migratory mobility of Slovenes is much smaller than that of the EU citizens: just 9 out of 1000 people moved to a different municipality in 1990s and fewer than 3 moved to a different region. For instance, in Germany 48 people moved to a different town and in Denmark even 63. Such low level of mobility even affects the efficiency of the Slovene economy. The potential external mobility of Slovenes is low, too, in fact it is one of the lowest in Eastern Europe.

Upon joining the EU Slovenia expects a small influx and efflux of workers. According to an analysis made by the International Organization for Migrations (IOM), just 7 percent of the Slovene citizens would move abroad - not just in the EU member countries - for good, which is the lowest figure among all transition countries except Bulgaria. The IOM in its survey on migration potentials in Central and Eastern Europe put Slovenia in the group of countries with a very small number of potential migrants. Most other candidate countries were put in the group with a big number of potential migrants or in the group of countries where a tendency towards short-term migrations is obvious.

Slovenia ranks just above the average when it comes to experts. A survey made in mid-1990s showed that 5 percent of Slovenes with MA or doctorate were thinking about going abroad, which is much more than in other candidate countries, little for the EU and a lot for Slovenia.

Figures support the arguments

In the middle of this year 1207 citizens of the EU member countries lived in Slovenia, which is 3 percent of all foreigners living in Slovenia (42,524). In the same time 36,404 Slovene citizens lived in the EU. In the end of last year 315 citizens from the EU worked in Slovenia. In 1991 - the last available data - 31,000 Slovene citizens worked in the EU, most of them in Austria, Germany and Italy. In this year, i.e. 1991, 52,600 Slovene citizens lived abroad, 40,000 of them in the EU.

Most Slovene citizens live in Germany. According to a German survey made earlier this year, the figure will be 18,600 in 2002, which means 2 percent of all foreigners from the ten Central and Eastern European candidate countries in Germany. The annual increment by the year 2004 is expected to be about 1000 people or 0.6 percent of the annual increment from ten candidates; in the next years it is to fall to some hundred people per year. The figure is negligible compared to a mass of 220,000 people who are expected to move to Germany every year after the free movement of persons is implemented. According to a survey made for the European Commission, 355,000 people from the Central and East European candidate countries are expected to move to the EU every year. The report, however, stresses that all fears of massive immigration are groundless.

The volume of daily migrations is, according to the latest surveys, small, too. About 13,000 people from Slovenia commute to Italy or Austria on a daily basis; 7,400 or 57 percent travel to Italy, most of them to Trieste with its surroundings, and 5,500 or 43 percent to Austria, most of them to Graz. Such daily trans-border migrations are favourable for all three countries. Italy and Austria benefit from a cheaper workforce from Slovenia in addition to filling the gaps in their labour markets and enhancing regional cooperation. Moreover, the employment of Slovene workers facilitates the penetration of companies from these countries to the Slovene market. Most daily migrants are primarily interested in finding a well-paid job, rather than in moving to the neighbouring country. The migrants, however, often spend part of their salary in the country where they work, they save in local banks and do shopping there. The volume of daily migrations to Austria and Italy should be maintained (and legalized) also after Slovenia joins the EU.

Slovenia is an immigrant country

Slovenia has been an immigrant country for a long time. In the period between 1982 and 1990 (Slovenia was part of ex-Yugoslavia) the net increase from migrations was 31,700 persons. Between 1991 and 1998 it was 1380 persons.

Slovenia emphasizes that there are no reasons for a considerable increase of migrations - permanent or daily - in the short run. Even if this happened, the figures would be negligible both for the EU and for the countries bordering Slovenia. And finally, one of the aims of Slovenia's integration in the EU is to improve the living standards of its population in their own country.

However, the long-term trends on the labour market do not depend solely on migratory but also on demographic trends. In the second half of 1990s inter-state migrations replaced and even exceeded the natural increase. The ageing of the population and consequently less working population, a rather inflexible manpower and occasional structural disharmony on the labour market are the reasons why Slovenia will need net migration in the long run.

In case of increased migrations the government can take measures allowed by the new act on the employment and work of foreigners. If there is a lack of qualified workers in Slovenia and in the EU Slovenia can sign bilateral agreements with third countries. Slovenia could, on the other hand, close its labour market for certain professions or in certain areas if there is an increased number of qualified workers from the internal market or the EU. According to the above mentioned act the number of work permits issued in Slovenia cannot exceed 5 percent of the working population.